"You've GOT to be kidding me!" I found myself saying those words over and over yesterday as I witnessed Cornell demolish the Badgers. With every contested three-pointer and off-balance runner in the lane, I could feel the game getting further and further away.
As John Gasaway has noted, this wasn't a problem with Wisconsin's offense. The Badgers scored at a good clip. The real issue was that Cornell's amazingly prolific offense overwhelmed a normally stout Wisconsin defense. When your opponent shoots over 50% from distance (53.3%), over 60% overall (61.1%), and over 80% from the line (81.2%), you are going to lose. Every other statistic was virtually even. There wasn't a turnover, rebounding, or blocked shot gap. It was all about the shooting, and I don't think I've seen a team shoot as well as Cornell since Providence beat Georgetown for the National Championship.
When something this unexpected happens, you have to ask whether it was Cornell's offense or the Badger defense. As with virtually every other case, I view it as a bit of both. Certainly, Cornell was hitting every shot. Ryan Wittman dropped a couple three-pointers a couple feet outside the line while fading away from an out-stretched hand, and he and Louis Dale made some runners in the lane that just don't go in most of the time. However, there were a few times that Chris Wroblewski found himself wide open under the basket because of defensive breakdowns. I also noted a decent amount of confusion in how to handle the pick and roll, which has been a problem on and off all season, especially against teams like Illinois, who use it as a staple of their offense.
One of the story lines that has come out of this game is how underseeded Cornell was. I don't know that I buy that. Two games with amazing shooting do not negate what Cornell has done the rest of the season. Cornell couldn't shoot like this on a regular basis against Ivy League competition, so why should we believe that they can keep this up over the long haul. I'll stick with the overall body of work rather than the two-game sample. However, I think that Cornell has proven that their offense can play with anyone, making them a very dangerous team. Just don't expect them to be able to score a point and a half per possession over and over again.
Today is a new day, so I'll be enjoying the rest of the tourney and looking forward to next season.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Sunday, March 21, 2010
WIAA Division I Finals
As you can see from the title, above, this little blog is meant to be a repository of my thoughts on a bunch of different subjects. In reality, it has been mostly restricted to college hoops, specifically the Wisconsin Badgers. However, I watched the Division I Finals for Wisconsin Boys Basketball last night and wanted to post a few thoughts.
Whether this is true or not, I viewed Arrowhead as the underdog in their matchup with Madison Memorial and I tend to root for the underdog, so I'm happy that they won. I dare to suggest that shooting 10-13 from three point land really led the way for Arrowhead's victory. A more average 5-13 shooting performance would have dropped 15 points from Arrowhead's total and made this a close game.
Ben Mills, Arrowhead's 7'1" center, had quite a good game. I wouldn't call it subjectively dominant or anything, but he recorded a robust 1.61 Point Per Net Possession (PPP) in the game. That means he scored about 1.6 points every time he used a possession for Arrowhead. In Division I college hoops, 1.00 is about average, so Mills had a very good game on offense. Throw in three blocks with only two personal fouls in 31 minutes, and you have the player of the game in my book.
There was talk during the broadcast that Mills may open up his recruitment now that the coach at Boise State is out the door. It will be interesting to see if this rumor has legs. I still don't see a place for him with the Badgers. First, there aren't any scholarships open. Second, he seems like the type who won't ever weigh much, which will make life tough in the Big Ten, unless he has an outside game like Mike Tisdale, something I didn't see in the championship game. Finally, it appeared to me that Mills has short arms, which, if true, makes him effectively shorter than his listed height would suggest.
The other big prospect on the floor last night was Vander Blue. He de-committed from Wisconsin and cast his lot with Marquette. In my mind, that was the wrong choice, but I'm a Badger homer and would have liked to see a player of Blue's ability in the cardinal and white. I believe that Wisconsin is a great landing place for most players, partly because of my homer tendencies and partly because of the development that I subjectively see in Bo Ryan players. Blue could have been a great player for Wisconsin. Hopefully, he ends up as a great player for Marquette, and hopefully he loses to the Badgers each and every time he plays them.
Blue had a terrible game, registering just 0.60 PPP. That is a truly bad number, predicated on poor shooting (4-15) and bad decisions (8 TO's). He did flash his athletic ability and potential, though, recording 8 rebounds and 7 steals.
Here are the PPP totals for all the players in the game who played more than 1 minute (except for Ryan May, who didn't use any net possessions in the game):
Tre Burnette was the best player last night. He used fewer than 5 Net Possessions to score 15 points. He did this by not turning the ball over while gathering 3 steals and grabbing 1 offensive rebound. The way I calculate PPP, the steals and offensive rebound reduce the possessions that he actually used through field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers. In this way, the only stats not counted in PPP are defensive rebounds and blocks. That was an amazing game for Burnette.
Unfortunately for Memorial, Burnette's production was blunted by Blue, Lomomba, Creamer, and Morris, who are all in the bottom half of the PPP list.
Fischer and Mills led Arrowhead with an inside/outside type of attack. Fischer did most of his damage with threes and didn't turn the ball over, while Mills got his points inside the arc and at the line while only turning it over twice.
Skarie shows up at the bottom but he is an example of the limits of evaluating players solely by PPP. Blue's poor production had a lot to do with Skarie's defense. Without watching the game, there would be no way to know how good a game Skarie actually played. I'm not saying he should rival Mills for Player of the Game in anyone's evaluation, but he was a valuable contributor, whose role is not well-recognized by PPP.
Congratulations Arrowhead! Good luck Ben Mills and Vander Blue. May you both find further success on the basketball court and in life.
Whether this is true or not, I viewed Arrowhead as the underdog in their matchup with Madison Memorial and I tend to root for the underdog, so I'm happy that they won. I dare to suggest that shooting 10-13 from three point land really led the way for Arrowhead's victory. A more average 5-13 shooting performance would have dropped 15 points from Arrowhead's total and made this a close game.
Ben Mills, Arrowhead's 7'1" center, had quite a good game. I wouldn't call it subjectively dominant or anything, but he recorded a robust 1.61 Point Per Net Possession (PPP) in the game. That means he scored about 1.6 points every time he used a possession for Arrowhead. In Division I college hoops, 1.00 is about average, so Mills had a very good game on offense. Throw in three blocks with only two personal fouls in 31 minutes, and you have the player of the game in my book.
There was talk during the broadcast that Mills may open up his recruitment now that the coach at Boise State is out the door. It will be interesting to see if this rumor has legs. I still don't see a place for him with the Badgers. First, there aren't any scholarships open. Second, he seems like the type who won't ever weigh much, which will make life tough in the Big Ten, unless he has an outside game like Mike Tisdale, something I didn't see in the championship game. Finally, it appeared to me that Mills has short arms, which, if true, makes him effectively shorter than his listed height would suggest.
The other big prospect on the floor last night was Vander Blue. He de-committed from Wisconsin and cast his lot with Marquette. In my mind, that was the wrong choice, but I'm a Badger homer and would have liked to see a player of Blue's ability in the cardinal and white. I believe that Wisconsin is a great landing place for most players, partly because of my homer tendencies and partly because of the development that I subjectively see in Bo Ryan players. Blue could have been a great player for Wisconsin. Hopefully, he ends up as a great player for Marquette, and hopefully he loses to the Badgers each and every time he plays them.
Blue had a terrible game, registering just 0.60 PPP. That is a truly bad number, predicated on poor shooting (4-15) and bad decisions (8 TO's). He did flash his athletic ability and potential, though, recording 8 rebounds and 7 steals.
Here are the PPP totals for all the players in the game who played more than 1 minute (except for Ryan May, who didn't use any net possessions in the game):
| Player | Pts | Poss | PPP |
| Tre Burnette | 15 | 4.88 | 3.07 |
| Charlie Fischer | 11 | 5 | 2.20 |
| Jordan Fredrick | 2 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Ben Mills | 18 | 11.2 | 1.61 |
| Miles Chamberlain | 6 | 5 | 1.20 |
| Charles Rushman | 14 | 11.88 | 1.18 |
| Blake Mattson | 3 | 2.76 | 1.09 |
| Brandan Ortiz | 2 | 1.88 | 1.06 |
| Andy Fox | 15 | 15.52 | 0.97 |
| Tre Creamer | 9 | 10.88 | 0.83 |
| Andrew Reichl | 8 | 10 | 0.80 |
| Junior Lomomba | 5 | 7.32 | 0.68 |
| Vander Blue | 8 | 13.44 | 0.60 |
| Jamar Morris | 2 | 6.88 | 0.29 |
| Michael Skarie | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
Tre Burnette was the best player last night. He used fewer than 5 Net Possessions to score 15 points. He did this by not turning the ball over while gathering 3 steals and grabbing 1 offensive rebound. The way I calculate PPP, the steals and offensive rebound reduce the possessions that he actually used through field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers. In this way, the only stats not counted in PPP are defensive rebounds and blocks. That was an amazing game for Burnette.
Unfortunately for Memorial, Burnette's production was blunted by Blue, Lomomba, Creamer, and Morris, who are all in the bottom half of the PPP list.
Fischer and Mills led Arrowhead with an inside/outside type of attack. Fischer did most of his damage with threes and didn't turn the ball over, while Mills got his points inside the arc and at the line while only turning it over twice.
Skarie shows up at the bottom but he is an example of the limits of evaluating players solely by PPP. Blue's poor production had a lot to do with Skarie's defense. Without watching the game, there would be no way to know how good a game Skarie actually played. I'm not saying he should rival Mills for Player of the Game in anyone's evaluation, but he was a valuable contributor, whose role is not well-recognized by PPP.
Congratulations Arrowhead! Good luck Ben Mills and Vander Blue. May you both find further success on the basketball court and in life.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Next Up: Cornell
Wisconsin survived Wofford in a closer contest than I would have liked. Next up for the Badgers: Cornell.
Cornell beat the tar out of a tough Temple squad in their opening game, relying on an offense powered, as it has been all season, by three-point shooting, overwhelming the 6th ranked defense in the nation.
What Cornell did to the Owls on the offensive end shouldn't really surprise anyone. Cornell shoots well from the outside. Strike that - Cornell shoots better than anyone in the country from outside; their 43.7% shooting from downtown is number one in the country this season.
However, as strong as Cornell is on offense (20th in the country), they can't match such success on defense, where they are only ranked 137th in the nation. Temple's moderately strong offense wasn't enough to take advantage of Cornell's weakness, but the Badgers' 17th ranked offense should do better.
The whole "live by the three, die by the three" thing is a bit tired. At the same time, it's true. A team like Cornell that relies so heavily on the three can beat just about anyone when the shots are falling. However, they don't have as much to fall back on (especially defensively) as other teams, when the threes aren't going in. If Cornell can drop those bombs on Wisconsin like they did on Temple, the Badgers are in for a game.
Still, I'd rather be facing Cornell than Temple. Cornell's weakness on defense is greater than Temple's is on offense. Essentially, Cornell is a more flawed team than Temple, and I'd rather play the team with more and deeper weaknesses to exploit, even if they have one strength that seems very dangerous.
The Cornell team is deep. Seven of their players have Player Efficiency Margins (PEM's) in double digits and only one player drops into negative territory. While nice to have, such depth is less important in the tournament, where rotations can be shortened to keep your best players in the game longer.
In the Big Dance, it is more important to have a couple high level performers. If they need to play 40 minutes rather than 30, that's 20 minutes that you give to very good players rather than reserves. Cornell doesn't have that type of player. I consider a high level performer as any player with a PEM over 30.0.
To give some perspective, there were only 19 players in the Big Ten with PEM's over 30.0 this season. Wait for it, Badger fans ------- five of those players were Badgers! Cornell doesn't have a single player over 30.0. In fact, they only have one over 25.0, little-used Max Groebe. Jeff Foote is the highest-ranked of the players who played over 50% of available minutes, with a 21.9 PEM.
Foote does worry me, though, because he has the size to bother Jon Leuer's shots (8.0% of shots blocked) if he matches up with Wisconsin's best player. If that occurs, though, I like Leuer's ability to take Foote out to the three-point line for an outside shot or a dribble drive, neither of which the seven-footer should be able to contest well, and both of which are part of Leuer's arsenal. If Foote matches up with Keaton Nankivil, instead, I like Leuer's short jumpers over the 6'6" and 6'7" types that Cornell runs out there at power forward.
Here are the numbers for Cornell's players:
Cornell beat the tar out of a tough Temple squad in their opening game, relying on an offense powered, as it has been all season, by three-point shooting, overwhelming the 6th ranked defense in the nation.
What Cornell did to the Owls on the offensive end shouldn't really surprise anyone. Cornell shoots well from the outside. Strike that - Cornell shoots better than anyone in the country from outside; their 43.7% shooting from downtown is number one in the country this season.
However, as strong as Cornell is on offense (20th in the country), they can't match such success on defense, where they are only ranked 137th in the nation. Temple's moderately strong offense wasn't enough to take advantage of Cornell's weakness, but the Badgers' 17th ranked offense should do better.
The whole "live by the three, die by the three" thing is a bit tired. At the same time, it's true. A team like Cornell that relies so heavily on the three can beat just about anyone when the shots are falling. However, they don't have as much to fall back on (especially defensively) as other teams, when the threes aren't going in. If Cornell can drop those bombs on Wisconsin like they did on Temple, the Badgers are in for a game.
Still, I'd rather be facing Cornell than Temple. Cornell's weakness on defense is greater than Temple's is on offense. Essentially, Cornell is a more flawed team than Temple, and I'd rather play the team with more and deeper weaknesses to exploit, even if they have one strength that seems very dangerous.
The Cornell team is deep. Seven of their players have Player Efficiency Margins (PEM's) in double digits and only one player drops into negative territory. While nice to have, such depth is less important in the tournament, where rotations can be shortened to keep your best players in the game longer.
In the Big Dance, it is more important to have a couple high level performers. If they need to play 40 minutes rather than 30, that's 20 minutes that you give to very good players rather than reserves. Cornell doesn't have that type of player. I consider a high level performer as any player with a PEM over 30.0.
To give some perspective, there were only 19 players in the Big Ten with PEM's over 30.0 this season. Wait for it, Badger fans ------- five of those players were Badgers! Cornell doesn't have a single player over 30.0. In fact, they only have one over 25.0, little-used Max Groebe. Jeff Foote is the highest-ranked of the players who played over 50% of available minutes, with a 21.9 PEM.
Foote does worry me, though, because he has the size to bother Jon Leuer's shots (8.0% of shots blocked) if he matches up with Wisconsin's best player. If that occurs, though, I like Leuer's ability to take Foote out to the three-point line for an outside shot or a dribble drive, neither of which the seven-footer should be able to contest well, and both of which are part of Leuer's arsenal. If Foote matches up with Keaton Nankivil, instead, I like Leuer's short jumpers over the 6'6" and 6'7" types that Cornell runs out there at power forward.
Here are the numbers for Cornell's players:
| Player | POE | PDE | PEM | OPAA | DPAA | PAA |
| Wittman | 120.1 | 100.1 | 20.0 | 69 | 2 | 71 |
| Foote | 116.8 | 94.9 | 21.9 | 46 | 17 | 63 |
| L. Dale | 119.9 | 100.3 | 19.7 | 51 | 1 | 52 |
| Jaques | 120.4 | 98.5 | 21.9 | 31 | 4 | 34 |
| Reeves | 118.9 | 101.6 | 17.3 | 34 | -2 | 33 |
| Wroblewski | 108.3 | 101.2 | 7.1 | 24 | -1 | 22 |
| Groebe | 127.1 | 100.9 | 26.2 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Coury | 108.7 | 97.0 | 11.7 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| A. Wire | 107.3 | 98.4 | 9.0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| Peck | 108.3 | 99.5 | 8.7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| A. Tyler | 90.5 | 99.2 | -8.8 | -9 | 1 | -8 |
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